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Five years ago, a mass of hot air settled over the Pacific Northwest, shattering state temperature records. The 2021 Heat Dome lasted from June 26 to June 28 and prompted many residents to crank up their air conditioning units to ward off the searing temperatures.

The Heat Dome was part of a new trend: more intense heatwaves and more extreme weather. In the past, the Eugene area averaged about 17 days per year with temperatures above 90 degrees. But in the last six years, the region has averaged 33 days above 90 degrees, according to the Oregon State Climatologist.

This summer will be a hot one and forecasters are already predicting that 2026 could become the hottest year on record globally. The trend will only continue in the years and decades ahead as the planet warms and extreme weather and intense heatwaves grow more common.

As summer temperatures rise, energy demand does too, since temperature is the biggest driver of energy demand. The Eugene Water & Electric Board (EWEB) routinely forecasts energy demand for the next day, week, year and decade to determine how much energy the utility needs to reliably serve customers.

Then, EWEB supplements the energy from hydropower projects that the utility owns on the McKenzie River with energy from short- and long-term contracts. EWEB’s largest energy provider is the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), a federal agency that sells energy from large dams on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. Last year, EWEB signed a new contract with BPA, securing $2.5 billion of reliable, affordable, carbon-free energy for customers for the next two decades. 

Together, these investments in a resilient power supply keep the lights and air conditioners running while meeting EWEB’s climate goals and keeping overall costs in check.

“Extreme weather patterns are growing more and more common, and with it strain on the grid,” said EWEB Energy Division Manager Megan Capper. “EWEB is developing a portfolio of solutions. We’re ensuring we have a robust power supply. And we’re developing partnerships with customers so that we can work together to actively manage energy demand and look for opportunities to partner with our customers to shift peak energy use.”

The 2021 Heat Dome marked a new era of extreme heat and extreme energy demand.

The scorching temperatures in 2021 were caused by a confluence of factors. An unusually intense high-pressure dome in the upper atmosphere settled over the region. The summer solstice had just passed, so the days were some of longest of the year. Overnight lows failed to dip below the 70s, offering little relief. And a record-dry spring prevented the soil’s usual evaporative cooling.

Shortly after the event, scientists worked to put a number to the role of climate change in causing the Heat Dome. After repeatedly running climate simulations, the World Weather Attribution Project determined that the Heat Dome was a 1-in-1,000-year event — that was made 150 times more likely due to global warming. Another study published in 2022 concluded the Heat Dome was a 1-in-10,000 year event.

During the Heat Dome, demand for EWEB electricity peaked at just over 400 megawatts, or some of the highest levels of summer electricity demand that EWEB has ever seen. EWEB’s demand forecast has incorporated this warming trend observed in historic data and anticipates this will continue to increase summer peak electricity demand.

In the past, summer demand rarely topped 400 megawatts, while average demand lingered around 250 megawatts. In general, meeting winter demand remains much more challenging, with peaks reaching at least 25% higher than in the summer.

For context, EWEB’s winter peaks reach as high as 500 or even 550 megawatts, and averages hover near 300 to 350 megawatts. But summer peaks strain the distribution system more as wires sag and transformers struggle to dissipate heat at the same time as the Pacific Northwest’s abundant hydro power struggles to store enough water to last into the late summer. 

Forecasters say that this summer will be a hot one.

A Pacific Ocean climate pattern called “El Niño” is swiftly developing, and could drive hot, dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest this summer and fall. Weather forecasters say that there is a 40% chance that sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific rise fast enough to qualify for a “super El Niño.” Such conditions could lead to 2026 becoming the hottest year on record. Currently, 2024 holds the record for the hottest year in recorded history. 

Earlier this month, Eugene got a taste of the hot summer that forecasters believe is in store for Oregon. Between June 13 and 15, high temperatures surpassed 90 degrees at the Eugene Airport. On Monday, June 15, they hit 98 degrees. Temperatures were so hot that the University of Oregon delayed two college-specific graduation ceremonies at Autzen Stadium and move them indoors. 

Heatwaves above 100 degrees drive substantially higher energy demand than those in the 90s. Demand during the mid-June heatwave topped out at 373 megawatts on Monday, June 15.

“So far this year, we haven’t seen the kinds of grid-straining heatwaves that we’ve seen in the last few years. But it’s still early,” Capper said. “Our energy supply team, including system planners and short-term traders, are preparing for the long-term and immediate challenges ahead as weather extremes become more common.” 

Customers can help the grid, and their bills.

EWEB offers programs that can help customers reduce energy use year-round, including during extreme weather events like the Heat Dome. If your home has an older heating system, EWEB’s rebate programs can help offset the cost of upgrading to a highly efficient heat pump — a switch that can also reduce strain on the grid during heat waves and cold snaps alike. EWEB also offers a range of additional appliance and weatherization incentives designed to lower energy use throughout the year. 

To explore available rebate and programs, visit EWEB.org/SaveEnergy.